The Aristotle Strategy
This is one of the most consistently profitable Football trades in the Sports Trading Edge arsenal. The Aristotle is essentially an over 2.5 goals trade with insurance positions on Under 1.5 and the correct score market.(as with the Clint)
The edge comes from statistical research, the probability of over 2.5 goals and entering the market when the price of over 2.5 goals is in our favour.
How it’s played
We’re looking for matches where there is a good statistical chance of both teams scoring, yet a price on over 2.5 goals of at least @1.90 (ideally higher). Where the price of over 2.5 is lower than @1.7 there is no value for us so we must wait to get involved.
Using a stake of £25 we split it:
A) 58% Stake of £14.50 Backed on over 2.5 goals
B) 14% Stake of £3.50 Backed on 1-1
C) 28% Stake of £7 Backed on under 1.5 goals
As long as there are no goals, the price of under 1.5 goals will drop creating profit for us to offset some of the loss of over 2.5 goals moving against us. After 23 minutes we’ll aim to green U1.5 as statistically first goals are score most often from the 24th minute of a match.
As the goals go in we can remove our liability on over 2.5 goals hedging out for a profit after the second goal. If the underdog scores first we can lay off half our stake on 1-1 to reduce our liability on other scores to £1.75. If it goes 1-1 we lay off again for around £6.75 to create a scratch on 1-1 and £5.00 on any other score line. When a match goes our way we can expect a return of between 20-80%.
The key to success in football is matching the right trades to the right games. To enable us to consistently do this we research key metrics ahead of each match we select.
The criteria we use:
Home side: Average goals for, against, combined average, % O2.5, %U2.5, strength of attack/defence
Away side: Average goals for, against, combined average, % O2.5, %U2.5, strength of attack/defence
We then calculate the combined average score and the probability of over 2.5 goals. Where the probably is greater than 60% we have a tradingEDGE and will look for prices of the right value to recommend a trade. If we find a match that we want to trade but with a price below @1.70, we have the option to lay under 4.5 goals to catch any early goals whilst we wait to enter the market when O2.5 reaches @2.10.
What’s the downside?
A bore draw of 0-0 will hurt us the most so we can take optional insurance to cover half our stake with a lay of over 0.5 goals which at an average of 1.07 will cost us just £0.88.