over 2.5 goals football trading strategyOver 2.5 Goals Soccer Trading Strategy

This is one of the most popular trading strategy on Betfair exchnage. Over/Under 2.5 goals market is right next to the Match odds market in terms of liquidity. This strategy is based on teams scoring Over 2.5 goals and that happens a lot!

The strategy

Using this strategy we will use two markets Over/under 2.5 goals market and Correct score market for cover.


Under 2.5 means, we’d expect 2 or less goals
Over 2.5 means, we need to see at least 3 goals in the match.


This strategy is low-risk, because if the favorite scores at least 1 goal, we will be at non-lose point or scratch. Then we will have to wait only for 2 more goals for profit. But this strategy is not for newbies at it requires certain ability to adapt and trade in two different markets at the same time.

Before the game

  • Look for games where there is a favourite priced 1.4-1.7;
  • Odds on over 2.5 goals are 1.7 or higher

Bets

  • Back bet on over 2.5
  • Back bets on Correct scores 1-0, 2-0, 1-1. These bets must cover losses on Over/Under 2.5 goals market.
trade over under 2.5 market

Bets on over/under market looks like this

trade on Correct score market betfair

Bets on Correct score market looks like this

As we can see if score turns 1-0 we cant lose anymore as next possible scores are covered (1-1, 2-0) and other possible scores are over 2.5 goals which means profit. If the favourite scores first goal early in the game, we can exit the trade with profit without waiting the game to end.

If the odds on over 2.5 goals are higher, we can make a small bet on 0-2 in favour to underdog.

What can go wrong?

Ofcourse scoreline 0-0 is the worst, where we loose all our bets in both markets. Therefore if you are watching the game and favourite is not at the best form and score at the halftime is 0-0 it is advised to leave the markets with a loss.

Another option is to place a bet from the potential profit on scoreline 0-0. The odds on 0-0 will be shortened to about 4.0. By doing this, the only dangerous scoreline will be 0-1 in favour to underdog.

Summary

A great strategy for games where you are expecting goals. By the way, you only need one goal for strong favourite and you are in the safe spot! The potential profit is not huge – about 30% of the liability, but if you choose the right games, you will be in long term profits!

goalprofits

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