You probably are familiar with classic over 2.5 soccer trading strategy. In this strategy you are making a back bet on Over 2.5 goals and covering 3 most probable under 2.5 scores – 1-0 and 2-0 to favorite and 1-1. So You will need only one goal for favorite team to break even. If there will be more than two goals, you will be a victor in that trade. Of course, you can green up after any goal, but profits will be better when over 2.5 is met.
Sounds like a good strategy?
It definitely is! But there are some flaws. The biggest one is profit margin. Lets look at some random game with odds of over 2.5 above 1.8 and a clear favorite team for win.
Found a good game – FIFA World Cup Qualifiers game between Argentina and Chile. Odds on Argentina win is 1.55 so there is a clear favorite and we can be pretty sure, that they will score at least one goal. And the odds of over 2.5 are 2.00. So on the paper this is a no=brainer trade where to use over 2.5 goals trading strategy.
Lets look at the possible profits, if the trade ends up over 2.5. We will bet 100€ on a over 2.5 goals and the amount to cover on 1-0, 2-0 and 1-1 will be 100€.
So there are the numbers! Our liability would be 162.52€ and our maximum profit would be 37.48€ (minus commissions). Liability/potential profit ratio for this trade is 4.33 ( I just made up this ratio, I have not heard about ratio like that before). This bet is quite safe, but in the worst scenario you can loose 162.52€ (if game ends with 0-0 or 0-1). And the ratio that I just invented would indicate how much successful trades it would take to make back the lost money.
This is a popular trading strategy which needs only one goal to secure a break even, but from my experience, you have to be very careful in choosing the right games to use this strategy for.
And this is why I came up with UPGRADED over 2.5 trading strategy!
So what is the update? Nothing special! I just split the over 2.5 bet in half and placed other half on over 3.5. It makes a huge difference! You are still safe if the favorite scores only one goal, but if there are few early goals or the game ends with over 3.5 then you will be quite happy that you used upgraded over 2.5 goals trading strategy.
Without further due, lets look at the numbers now!
The numbers now:
Potential profit: 117.48 (minus commissions)
Liability/potential profit ratio for this trade is 1.38
With this little twist we are able to lower our liability/potential profit ratio approximately 3 times! Which one of these strategies would you choose?
When I first time tried out this over trading strategy, I could not believe how profitable it was compared to the regular over 2.5 strategy. One goal in first 10 minutes pays out like the maximum that you could make with regular over 2.5 strategy.
And the best part is that you still need just only one goal from favorite team to break even. Everything past that is your profit!
This strategy is even more profitable if you choose games with higher odds on over 2.5 goals. The probability of over 3.5 goals is low, but the fact that you need only one goal from favorite makes it profitable. They can score two early goals and finish game with 1-1, for example, but if you close trade early, you can look at nice profit on that trade.
Exit trade early or wait for more goals – that is up to you! Okay, now go and try this strategy on Betfair or any other exchange that you are trading on!
I will appreciate any comments for this strategy below!