Betfair.com is the biggest sports betting exchange. In Betfair the players bet against each other and not against the Betfair itself. Because of this, the stakes ratios are higher here than anywhere else.
Another difference is that in the betting exchange you can not only buy stakes, but also sell them, which opens up new money earning possibilities – sports trading. The idea behind it is the same as in the currency, stock and product markets – to buy cheaper and sell at a higher price. The difference is that the ratio is affected by the performance of the team or the sportsman.
Betfair Football Trading
Football is the world’s most popular type of sports. Numerous football games take place every day in various countries of the world. To make the games more interesting, trading exchanges offer to predict the outcomes of the games and place bets on them. Betfair.com also offers this opportunity, as well as a chance to trade or speculate with the stakes. The aim of the trading is to create a situation when, no matter what the outcome of the match is, you are still the winner.
The main goal of sports trading is to create a situation when you are in profits no mater what the outcome is.
Let`t get to the point! Here are are 5 proven and profitable Betfair exchange Football trading strategies:
Lay The Draw Football Trading Strategy
The simplest football trading strategy
Lay The Draw is the most popular Betfair football trading system. This Strategy is mostly used by beginners. If you apply this strategy to the correct type of match, you are almost guaranteed to profit 100% of the time.
The concept of this strategy is very simple – when a goal is scored in a football match, the prices of all the match outcomes (home win, away win or draw) changes. How it changes depends on many factors such as which team scores the goal and the time of the goal. In this strategy we are trying to lay the draw before the kick-off, and back it at higher price after goal is scored, therefore securing a great profit.
Select match by the following criteria:
- Favorite odds is lower than 2
- Odds on draw is lower than 4
- In last 3 games there haven`t been 0-0 draw for none of the teams
- The favorite team scores more than one goal in match on average
- Head-to-Head between the teams indicates lots of goal (should be within the last two years)
- The liquidity in the market should be at least 40 000
- If the favorite team scores first, I get out of my position and green up
- If the dog scores first, I do the “Metaltone” strategy: back the draw for 50% of my initial lay stake and lay the “dog” for 75% of my initial lay stake. If there is an equalizer, you can then green up for overall profit. If there is no equalizer and the dog goes on to win, I accept the loss (or in some cases small profit) that I have on the dog and move on to the next game
- If still 0-0 when the draw price hits 2.0, I “red” up and accept the loss
The Socrates football trading Strategy
This is a variation of the Aristotle/Clint trade which helps to maximize profit and reduce the downside whilst removing the need for as much in play management.
Why it works
Using the same match selection criteria as the Aristotle/Clint, the BTTS becomes a very simple trade for beginners to follow. We take our positions in the market at the start of the match and only need to make any moves if the score is 0-0, or 1-0 after 60 minutes. Because of its simplicity it is possible to trade multiple matches at the same time.
Where’s the edge?
The edge here is in match selection, the statistical probability of over 2.5 goals and the regularity of both teams scoring. We are looking for a double win on two markets BTTS (both teams to score) and over 2.5 goals to maximize our profits. Even in a match where a side concedes 6 goals there will often be a consolation goal to give us our double win.
How it’s played
We are looking for matches where the price of BTTS and Over 2.5 goals are @1.80 or above.
Using a £25 stake we enter the market pre-match with the following stakes:
Stake of £10 Backed on BTTS @1.80+
Stake of £10 Backed on over 2.5 goals @1.80+
Stake of £2 Backed on 0-0
Stake of £3 Backed on 1-1
We will let this trade run to its conclusion unless the score is 0-0 or 1-0 after 60 minutes. If 0-0 we will green up 0-0 and scratch 1-1 taking a hedged red on over 2.5 goals and BTTS.
If 1-0 we green up 1-1, scratch (or take a small loss on over 2.5 goals) and red BTTS. Any other score line and we have a trading edge so can let the trade run until 80 minutes where we can reassess. We can either exit the trade or stay in with a probable win on either, 1-1, over 2.5 or BTTS and ideally both Over 2.5 goals and BTTS.
Where’s the downside
The downside is no goal or two goals to one side. Taking insurance to cover half our stake with a lay of over 0.5 goals will protect us from a 0-0 draw. A small back of 2-0 and 3-0 at 1-0 will minimise the loss of a 2-0 finish.
Over 2.5 Goals Soccer Trading Strategy
This is one of the most popular trading strategy on Betfair exchange. Over/Under 2.5 goals market is right next to the Match odds market in terms of liquidity. This Betfair trading strategy is based on teams scoring Over 2.5 goals and that happens a lot!
Using this strategy we will use two markets Over/under 2.5 goals market and Correct score market for cover.
Under 2.5 means, we’d expect 2 or less goals
Over 2.5 means, we need to see at least 3 goals in the match.
This strategy is low-risk, because if the favorite scores at least 1 goal, we will be at non-lose point or scratch. Then we will have to wait only for 2 more goals for profit. But this strategy is not for newbies at it requires certain ability to adapt and trade in two different markets at the same time.
Before the game
- Look for games where there is a favorite priced 1.4-1.7;
- Odds on over 2.5 goals are 1.7 or higher
- Back bet on over 2.5
- Back bets on Correct scores 1-0, 2-0, 1-1. These bets must cover losses on Over/Under 2.5 goals market.
As we can see if score turns 1-0 we cant lose anymore as next possible scores are covered (1-1, 2-0) and other possible scores are over 2.5 goals which means profit. If the favourite scores first goal early in the game, we can exit the trade with profit without waiting the game to end.
If the odds on over 2.5 goals are higher, we can make a small bet on 0-2 in favor to underdog.
What can go wrong?
Of course scoreline 0-0 is the worst, where we loose all our bets in both markets. Therefore if you are watching the game and favorite is not at the best form and score at the halftime is 0-0 it is advised to leave the markets with a loss.
Another option is to place a bet from the potential profit on scoreline 0-0. The odds on 0-0 will be shortened to about 4.0. By doing this, the only dangerous scoreline will be 0-1 in favor to underdog.
A great strategy for games where you are expecting goals. By the way, you only need one goal for strong favorite and you are in the safe spot! The potential profit is not huge – about 30% of the liability, but if you choose the right games, you will be in long term profits!
The Aristotle football trading strategy
The Aristotle is essentially an over 2.5 goals Betfair Football trading strategy with insurance positions on Under 1.5 and the correct score market (as with the Clint).
Where’s the edge?
The edge comes from statistical research, the probability of over 2.5 goals and entering the market when the price of over 2.5 goals is in our favor.
How it’s played
We’re looking for matches where there is a good statistical chance of both teams scoring, yet a price on over 2.5 goals of at least @1.90 (ideally higher). Where the price of over 2.5 is lower than @1.7 there is no value for us so we must wait to get involved.
Using a stake of £25 we split it:
A) 58% Stake of £14.50 Backed on over 2.5 goals
B) 14% Stake of £3.50 Backed on 1-1
C) 28% Stake of £7 Backed on under 1.5 goals
As long as there are no goals, the price of under 1.5 goals will drop creating profit for us to offset some of the loss of over 2.5 goals moving against us. After 23 minutes we’ll aim to green U 1.5 as statistically first goals are score most often from the 24th minute of a match.
As the goals go in we can remove our liability on over 2.5 goals hedging out for a profit after the second goal. If the underdog scores first we can lay off half our stake on 1-1 to reduce our liability on other scores to £1.75. If it goes 1-1 we lay off again for around £6.75 to create a scratch on 1-1 and £5.00 on any other score line. When a match goes our way we can expect a return of between 20-80%.
The key to success in football is matching the right trades to the right games. To enable us to consistently do this we research key metrics ahead of each match we select.
The criteria we use:
Home side: Average goals for, against, combined average, % O 2.5, %U 2.5, strength of attack/defense
Away side: Average goals for, against, combined average, % O 2.5, %U 2.5, strength of attack/defense
We then calculate the combined average score and the probability of over 2.5 goals. Where the probably is greater than 60% we have a trading edge and will look for prices of the right value to recommend a trade. If we find a match that we want to trade but with a price below @1.70, we have the option to lay under 4.5 goals to catch any early goals whilst we wait to enter the market when O 2.5 reaches @2.10.
What’s the downside?
A bore draw of 0-0 will hurt us the most so we can take optional insurance to cover half our stake with a lay of over 0.5 goals which at an average of 1.07 will cost us just £0.88.
Over 1.5 Goals Football Trading Strategy
Classic Over/Under bets are always based on 2.5 goals. This Betfair trading strategy is based on Over 1.5 goals, which is a far more secure way to place bets as ordinary Over 2.5.
As the name says – we’ll bet on soccer – on a number of goals.
Under 1.5 means, we’d expect 0 or 1 goals,
Over 1.5 means, we need to see at least 2 goals in the match.
For this strategy – bets are never placed before the match, only on Live In-play games.
The odds tend to raise fast. On average, before the game, the odds for Over 1.5 are 1.30 or more. Not enough to make a decent profit. Let the game begin and simply observe. Each minute without a goal, raises the odds.
After 15 minutes, you can expect odds about 1.45. In 30 minutes about 1.70 and if the first half doesn’t produce any goals at all – the odds could get up to 2.0 or over!
This is what we need and that’s when we’ll place our bet. If you want, you can place a bet in the 40. minute of the first half or during the half-time. The sooner you place, the lower your profit will be.
Once the goal is scored, the odds will drop, usually back to 1.5 and making a perfect position to trade the bet. The time of the first goal also determines how much you’ll win. In an ideal position, the first goal will be scored between 46th and 55th minute. And it happens a lot!
Remember – don’t place any bets in the first 30 minutes of the game. After that, check the odds and bet on Over 1.5!
Check the statistics. If the last five or six matches have produced over 2.5 goals for both teams or at least the home team, bet on it. Bet whenever you think you’re ready, it could be 10th or 30th minute.Take the odds at 1.50 or over!
But what happens if the teams are fast and the first goal is scored in the first 10 minutes? This strategy is not suitable anymore.
Instead of that, check the statistics for the team. Maybe it’s just a lucky shot and bet on Under 1.5! The odds at that point must be at least 10!! If you play on a betting exchange, wait and hope for another 30 minutes without goals. You’ll be able to sell your bet with a nice profit again! Of course, you don’t need to sell, but the risk is higher.
Sometimes, the teams will keep you on the edge for 80 minutes, before the action starts.
A great universal strategy. The only downside is – you’ll have to watch the games or at least keep a track of live-score and you’ll need a lot of time to do that. But in the end – it’s worth it!
Let’s do a quick summary:
- Bet on over 1,5 goals instead of 2,5
- Do the analysis and only the games that are predicted for over 2,5 do qualify for this strategy
- don’t place any bets until the odds for over 1,5 are at least 1,50 or more (we recommend waiting for 40 minutes or the whole first half to remain goalless).
- If the goal is scored in the first 60 minutes of the game, you’ll be making money if you trade out, or leave the bet open and hope for another goal. This depends on what you see if you’re watching the game. If the goal is hanging in the air – keep it open.
The Clint Football Trading Strategy
In this Betfair football trading strategy we are looking for a strong home favorite where Over 2.5 goals is 1.90 or more (2s to 2.10 is ideal) and Under 1.5 goals is 3.6 or more. We are also looking for games with recent head-to-head and current form showing goals and/or 1-1s.
We place the bets just before KO although it may be necessary to wait until the game is in play. This strategy is very similar to the ‘Aristotle’ strategy which uses a £25 stake for a 20 to 80% return if all goes well.
How it`s played:
A variation on CoverS. Back Over 2.5 + back 1-1, (sometimes split 1-1 and 2-0 to fave 50-50 staking) + Scalp Under 1.5 (or back it for newcomers)
We now back 2-1 and 2-2 OR just 2-2, (with evenly matched sides)
Use: 1st half
Selection criteria: Choose games where you think will be goals with 1-1 as cover. Over 2.5 should be 1.90 min to back. With certain games if you feel 2-0 is a strong possibility split the 1-1 and 2-0 cover., ie £5 and £5 or £10 and £10.
Staking: Back Over 2.5 £35/£70;1-1 £5/£10 (2-0 optional if strong fave involved then split with 1-1, ie £3 on each), 2-1 £5 OR 2-1 £3 and £ on 2-2
Back Under 1.5 for £12/£24
If you can Scalp Under 1.5 and have that covered it leaves you in a very strong position.