Over/Under 2.5 goals is the second most traded Betfair sports exchange market, just behind Match odds market.

How is Over/Under 2.5 goals market played?

2.5 goals may be a bit confusing to bettors or sports traders that are just starting out. But actually, it is very simple!

  • Under 2.5 goals means that there will be two or less goals scored in the football game. That includes scorelines: 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, 0-2.
  • Over 2.5 goals means that there will be three or more goals scored in the football game. That includes every other scoreline which is not one of the mentioned above.

What is the most popular Over 2.5 goals trading strategy on Betfair?

This is a simple question, because there is only one traditional Over 2.5 goals strategy. And in my opinion, this strategy is not so effective, because of the big liabilities and small potential profit.

I have reviewed this strategy previously here: 6 Proven and Profitable Football / Soccer Betfair Trading Strategies. But we can take another look at this strategy.

Classic Over 2.5 goals Betfair trading strategy

Using this strategy we will use two markets Over/under 2.5 goals market and Correct score market for cover.

This strategy is low-risk, because  favourite has to score just one goal and we will be at non-lose point or scratch trade. Then we will have to wait only for 2 more goals from any of the teams for profit. This strategy is also low-reward, because profits from successful trades are not big.

What are selection criteria for this strategy?

  • Odds on favorite – 1.4-1.7;
  • Odds on over 2.5 goals – 1.7 or higher

What bets are placed on this strategy?

  • Back bet on over 2.5
  • Back bets on Correct scores 1-0, 2-0, 1-1. These bets must cover losses on Over/Under 2.5 goals market. You can adjust these bets – a bit more on possible results and less on not so possible results.
trade over under 2.5 market

Bets on over/under market looks like this

trade on Correct score market betfair

Bets on Correct score market looks like this

As we can see if score turns 1-0 we cant lose anymore as next possible scores are covered (1-1, 2-0) and other possible scores are over 2.5 goals which means profit. If the favourite scores first goal early in the game, we can exit the trade with profit without waiting the game to end. If the odds on over 2.5 goals are higher, we can make a small bet on 0-2 in favor to underdog.

over 25 trading grid

Correct score grid example of over 2.5 goals trading strategy on Betfair

Correct score grid view is one of the ways how to see the full picture of Betfair trading strategies. There is a software called Betpractice ScoreGrid, where you can see on which scorelines you will win and on which loose.

In this example you can see that if the favorite team scores a goal, then we have guaranteed a scratch trade. The only dangerous results are 0-0, 0-1 and 0-2, which are quite unlikely to happen. If wee look at the ROI figures for this football trade, then it is only 18% if there is over 2.5 goals in the match.

What can go wrong?

Of course scoreline 0-0 is the worst, where we loose all our bets in both markets. Therefore if you are watching the game and favorite is not at the best form and score at the halftime is 0-0 it is advised to leave the markets with a loss. Another option is to place a bet from the potential profit on scoreline 0-0. The odds on 0-0 will be shortened to about 4.0. By doing this, the only dangerous scoreline will be 0-1 in favor to underdog.

Summary

Over 2.5 goals is a great strategy for games where you are expecting goals. By the way, you only need one goal for strong favorite and you are in the safe spot! The potential profit is not huge – about 30% of the liability, but if you choose the right games, you will be in long term profits!

What is the most popular Under 2.5 goals Betfair trading strategy?

The most popular Under 2.5 goals Betfair trading strategy is very similar to Over 2.5 strategy, but this time we are going to back Under 2.5 goals and make some Cover bets in Correct score market on few scorelines that are over 2.5 goals.

What are selection criteria for this strategy?

In this strategy we will take into account only the odds of Under 2.5 and they should be around 1.7 – 2.0.

You will have to do a small research of both teams recent form and previous H2H meetings and decide yourself, if this game is going to be under 2.5 goals.

What bets are placed on this strategy?

  • Back bet on Under 2.5 goals;
  • Back bets on some of Correct scores 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 3-1, 3-0, Any Other Home Win. Here you will have to decide which scores you are going to favor yourself. These bets must cover losses on Over/Under 2.5 goals market. You can adjust these bets – a bit more on possible results and less on not so possible results.
under 2.5 goals trading betfair

Bets in Over/Under 2.5 goals market

under 2.5 goals strategy

Bets in Correct Score market

It would be a wise move to make a back bet on Any Other Home or Away win, because if the game turns out to be a goal shower, then you will be safe. Covering AOHW or AOAW will be a nice cover for fast 2 goals.

correct score under 25 goals

Correct Score grid example of Under 2.5 goals strategy

As you can see in the Correct Score grid example above, there are quite few dangerous scorelines that actually could happen.

What can go wrong?

This strategy does not The most dangerous are 3-0 and 1-2. But 3-0 is just one goal away from safe scorelines, and if there is still plenty of time to be played in a football game, you can asses – wait for another goal or take a small loss by greening up Correct Score market.

1-2 scoreline is dangerous as well. If the result becomes 1-2 late in the game, then there will be nothing much you can do, only hope for an equalizer and scoreline 2-2. If the leading team scores again and the result becomes 1-3 then all your stake is lost.

Conclusion

Under 2.5 goals strategy can be a profitable one, if you choose the right games and everything goes as planned. If it goes wrong, you will be looking at a big loss. The average ROI for this strategy is about 33% which is not bad. If you can choose games with a bit more than 66% accuracy, then you will be seeing long term profits using this Under 2.5 goals Betfair trading strategy.

Over 2.5 goals + BTTS Yes + Correct Score Betfair trading strategy

Let’s look at some hybrid Over 2.5 goals trading strategy, which I am using successfully in my trading journey. I was playing with ScoreGrid Correct Score grid tool and was surprised with the strategy that I crafted.

It is similar to classic Over 2.5 goals trading strategy in the way, that you need only one goal from favorite team to be in scratch position. In this strategy we are looking for both teams to score a goal and over 2.5 goals, but we have 1-0 and 2-0 to favorite covered.

 

 

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