Scatter Gun is a popular Betfair football trading strategy, which is based on Correct Score market. Basically, in this strategy you are backing 3 Correct Scores: 1-1, 1-2, 2-1. So, You will have to look for an evenly matched games where both teams are predicted to score a goal.
This trading strategy is called Scatter Gun, because if you chose the right games it can be very profitable and your account balance grows rapidly! Bang bang!
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What bets are placed on this strategy?
In this strategy bets are placed pre-match. Let’s look at example, using 100 euro stake:
- Dutch bet scores 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 using Oddschecker Dutcing calculator
If the game is still tied at 0-0, then you can place small additional bet on 2-2, as the odds will be in 25-30 range. This bet can yield good returns, if the teams start to score goals later in the game.
Correct Score grid example of Scater Gun Betfair trading strategy
Stakes calculated using Dutching calculator
In the Correct Score grid above, you can see the whole picture on this strategy. You have only 3 correct scores in green and all others are losers. So, you will be really careful to choose the right games for this strategy to make a profit.
Selection Criteria for games that qualify for this strategy:
Before even looking into correct score market, you will have to check two other market odds – Match Odds and Over/Under 2.5 Goals market.
In the Match Odds market you have to look at the favorite team odds – they have to be 1.80 or more. In the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market you have to look for Under 2.5 price to be around 1.90 – 2.10.
If both of these criteria are met, then the odds of 1-1 scoreline should be at around 7.00 – 8.50. The price of 2-1 should be at around 9.00 – 10.00, but 1-2 at around 12.00 – 14.00.
What are the dangers of this strategy?
If we are trading only in Correct Score market, we should always look out of the dangerous scores and other things that could go wrong. After that we can think of some “emergency” moves if the games does not go as planned.
0-0 scoreline
Of course, the biggest danger in this strategy is 0-0 scoreline, as in any strategy where we are looking for goals and both teams to score.
You can do some pre-match scalping to get some profit on 0-0. You will need to scalp just 1 to 2 ticks to get a nice profit sitting on this scoreline. When you are trading pre-match, your money is safe, the only danger is if the price moves against you. But if you red-up across all scorelines, the losses will be minimal.
The best time to back and lay 0-0 scoreline is 30 – 45 minutes before the match, you can get a one tick movement at that time. There is no guarantee, but if you will make it, there will be € 35 – 50 “Green” sitting on 0-0.
After that, you can leave that money on 0-0 or green-up across all scorelines when the price have dropped.
Many goals scored in the first half
The other danger of this strategy is too much goals scored too early. As we are looking for 2 or 3 goals in this game, it will be bad, if the first half produces many goals.
If it becomes 1-1 at first half of the game, you should think about greening-up and take small profit.
If it becomes 2-0 or 0-2 at first half, you should probably exit the game with a loss, because if the leading team scores another goal, then you will loose all your stake.
In-play trading
In this strategy we are looking to make moves in-play. This definitely is not set and forget bet – you will have to follow the game via live scores or watch the game on TV or stream.
The perfect scenario of this game:
- Underdog scores first goal and the odds of 1-1 shortens;
- Favorite team scores an equalizer goal at about 60 minutes played. The odds of 1-1 becomes really attractive and next possible scorelines are 2-1, 1-2, and they are also covered.
- Then we can green up at 1-1 or wait for another goal.
If you backed the 2-2 scoreline before, then the best thing to do at 1-1 would be to wait for another goal. You can lay off some part or all the green from 1-1, because that will boost your profits on other scorelines significantly. By doing that, you could be looking at 300% ROI from this trade!
2 – 0, 0 -2 scenario
If some of teams manages to score two quick goals, nothing much can be done to brighten this trade up. You can take a loss across all scorelines, accepting a loss of about 80% of your stake, but keeping the hope that there will be late goal for the loosing side.
If the winning side scores another goal, all your bets will be lost.
You can also think of something original, for example, making bets in Next Goal market or laying Over 2.5 goals at very low odds to secure a scratch trade if the result stays the same.
No goals scored at half time and no cover bets on 0-0
In this scenario, You do not have many options – you can take a loss or hope for goals to be scored in second half.
You can also consider backing 1-0, 0-1 scorelines to have some cover if the games ends with one goal. But by doing this, you will have bigger losses if the game ends goalless.
Summary
- Look for evenly strong sides – home team odds 1.80 or more;
- Look for Under 2.5 odds for 1.90 – 2.10;
- Do not use more that 10% of your bankroll as a stake for this trade;
- Try scalping 0-0 scoreline before the game;
- Use Dutching calculator to calculate stakes;
- If the score is 0-0 at around 25 – 30 played, make a small bet on 2-2 scoreline;
- If a goal is scored look to lay of half of the stake on 1-1 scoreline;
